Strong economic trend, aluminum demand picks up, Shanghai aluminum is expected to hit 16,000 yuan
专栏:Industry information
Since the Shanghai Aluminum Index hit a high of 14,675 yuan / ton on November 14, 2016, Shanghai Aluminum has been in a consolidation trend. After a lapse of three months, Shanghai Aluminum ..........
Since the Shanghai Aluminum Index hit a high of 14,675 yuan / ton on November 14, 2016, Shanghai Aluminum has been in a consolidation trend. After a lapse of three months, Shanghai Aluminum rose sharply yesterday (February 14), and the closing price hit a two-and-a-half-year high. Judging from the various factors in the current situation, it is not an accident that Shanghai Aluminum's current round is rising. It is expected that its price will continue to be strong in the short term. The main reasons are as follows:


Strong economic trend, aluminum demand picks up


According to a series of data released recently, China's macroeconomic indicators have sharply strengthened. The January CPI announced on February 14 increased by 2.5% year-on-year. Although there are Spring Festival factors, the PPI increased by 6.9% year-on-year, which confirms that the current price of consumer goods and production materials is entering a virtuous circle and economic activity. Is improving. The new RMB loan of 2.03 trillion yuan in January hit a new high, indicating that the company's investment is increasing. In particular, the increase in social integration of 3.74 trillion yuan in January has created a new historical record.


Specific to some large aluminum users, whether it is fiery construction real estate, or last year's 14% year-on-year increase in the best performance of the car, home appliances and high-end packaging, have really stimulated the consumption of aluminum. This trend will continue to be a big probability this year, which is the fundamental factor for the upward price of aluminum.


Under the pressure of environmental protection and trade, the reduction of production by aluminum companies is obviously better than the demand side, and the production capacity and output reduction from the supply side is the bigger push for this round of market. Environmental protection requirements are tightening and production reduction is expected to be strong. According to the draft of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2017 air pollution prevention and control work plan” published last month, the electrolytic aluminum production enterprises in Henan, Hebei, Shandong and Shanxi provinces have a combined production capacity of more than 11 million tons. It accounts for about 30% of the country's total operating capacity. As the program has not been finalized and is far from specific implementation, some investors believe that the variables are larger and the possibility of reducing production capacity is lower. However, the author believes that the reason for aluminum companies to cut excess capacity is not only environmental protection, but also the pressure to reduce production from international trade cannot be ignored. In recent years, trade disputes between China and the European Union and the United States on metal products, especially steel and aluminum, have been very frequent. As the second largest trading partner of the United States, after Trump took office, he threatened to impose a tariff of up to 45% on Chinese products, which made the status of exporting aluminum "snapped" because many disputes began from overcapacity in China's aluminum industry. , a large number of exports to foreign countries. In view of this, the intensity of China's aluminum industry's de-capacity this year is likely to exceed the current market expectations, and the supply-side reform of the aluminum industry must pay attention to the boosting capacity of aluminum prices.


 From the perspective of inventory, the inventory level that is currently at a low level of nearly 8 years is undoubtedly an important factor supporting the upward price of aluminum. According to data released by LME, the total global inventory of LME as of February 10 was 2.23 million tons, a decrease of 19% over the same period last year. In fact, this downward trend began after the LME inventory reached a peak of 5.49 million tons three years ago. In this calculation, LME aluminum stocks have been cut by nearly 60% from high points. From the domestic situation, the past year has also experienced a process of sharp decline in inventory, basically falling from more than 300,000 tons to more than 100,000 tons. As of the 10th of this month, the total inventory of aluminum in the previous period was about 180,000 tons, which showed a significant increase trend in recent weeks. In addition, the number of warehouse receipts after the holiday almost doubled, but this situation can not change the trend of Shanghai aluminum in the short term.

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