Last Friday, ALD comprehensive report domestic spot alumina price of 3500-3550 yuan / ton, the average weekly price rose by 7.3%; domestic spot weighted price of 3517.6 yuan / ton, the average weekly price rose by 6.8%.
The warm season policy is strictly implemented.
A few months ago, ALD had analyzed the potential impact of the heating season on the decline of electrolytic aluminum production and the decline in alumina production. From the theoretical calculations at that time, the annual output of alumina was about 1.32 million tons, and the impact of electrolytic aluminum production was 360,000. About ton, the market was suspected at the time was mainly because the impact of the heating season policy would be so strict, and whether the implementation would be so severe. With the urgent notice of the Jiaozuo Municipal Government on the further strengthening of air pollution control and control work on September 18, the policy has certainly been severely judged before it is gradually verified. ALD recently visited Jiaozuo Wanfang's main holding company to visit and understand, including Jiaozuo Wanfang, the company has begun to prepare for the parking.
In terms of the total amount, Jiaozuo is more representative of Zhongzhou Aluminum and Jiaozuo Wanfang. The production capacity involved in the shutdown is about 700,000 tons of alumina and about 130,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, and the total amount of 2+26+ Henan in the north. The proportion is basically the same, that is, the impact of alumina is greater than that of electrolytic aluminum. Under the conditions of strict implementation and implementation of the policy, the market expectation that the decline in alumina supply is faster than the decline in demand is being verified.
Funds continue to intensively enter the market
As the policy expectations gradually become stronger, it coincides with the approach of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. For many years of market changes before and after the National Day, aluminum prices have been hitting new highs for many years. Before the end of the year, aluminum plants will generally strengthen the days of stocking and inventory protection. After the conditions, the judgments and expectations of market participants are getting stronger and stronger, and the expectation for the alumina market is increasing. The funds represented by speculative trade continue to flood into the alumina market, and the spot alumina market, which is very limited in scale, is The surge in funds has steadily set a new high in a decade.
Weakening of inventory and supply and demand balances
The alumina market has maintained good liquidity and the influx of funds. It is basically meaningless to pay attention to the subtle changes in the inventory of alumina companies or to whether the market continues to have a monthly static digital surplus. As long as there is no significant change in the environment, that is to say, there is no substantial increase in the supply of alumina, the current alumina market heat will not be fundamentally reversed at least during the 30-day period before and after the National Day. Of course, the market needs to pay close attention to the future operation of alumina reform and expansion projects represented by Shanxi. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the total import volume. The theme of these supply changes is the quantitative basis for future market changes, but it is still unable to reverse the momentum. At present, the main contradiction in the alumina market is that the liquidity under the intervention of funds has increased greatly, and the dominant supply has continued to be tense.
Aluminum price stimulates the release of electrolytic aluminum
As mentioned earlier, the supply of alumina will not increase significantly in the near future. On the contrary, the phenomenon of reduced supply and increased demand is gradually emerging. The decrease in supply was mainly due to the severe heating season policy mentioned above, and alumina production was more affected by the heating season. With regard to the increase in demand, the aluminum production has been hitting new highs, and the new capacity for compliance is accelerating construction. The most representative ones are Chinalco's Huayun, Huaren, Hualei and China Resources four electrolytic aluminum projects. Among them, Huayun has started the electrolysis tank of a plant, involving a production capacity of 250,000 tons. The Huaren project has started power-on last month. The node targets of Hualei and China Resources' two electrolytic aluminum projects are all at the end of this month. Under the stimulation of aluminum prices, under the overall deployment of Chinalco, the above projects are expected to be put into operation as scheduled. In addition, ALD understands that the guest's Yinhai and Yingkou Zhongwang's electrolytic aluminum project has also been basically completed, and will be ignited at the end of this month. On the whole, except for Zhongwang, the above-mentioned projects belong to large enterprises with large alumina, which have sufficient supply of alumina. With the production of electrolytic aluminum, the space and flexibility of alumina in the system continue. Increased, the bargaining power of alumina spot is continuously improved. In addition, ALD understands that Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Co., Ltd. under the coordination of Jinjiang Group, the indicators have been implemented, and the start has also entered the agenda.
The spot stock is limited, and the spot supply outside the long list will continue to be very tight, and the market continues to hit a new high with the intervention of funds. With the sturdy and disappearing price of 3,500 yuan last week, alumina prices are expected to continue to show a jump pattern.