The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to have an expected reversal. The market was not implemented due to the reform of the supply side of electrolytic aluminum in Shandong, and domestic stocks were high, while the electrolytic aluminum industry was expected to decrease. This feedback exceeded market expectations, and the violations in Binzhou and Liaocheng were severely worded, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was expected to be controlled. The domestic electrolytic aluminum price is expected to control production capacity in Shandong, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory will gradually rise again. The market expectation for the electrolytic aluminum industry is also expected to reverse.
Compliance capacity is expected to decrease. The 2.89 million tons of falsely reported capacity proposed in this feedback was previously identified as compliance capacity, as it was a high probability event that the false report was identified as non-compliant capacity. The national (without Guangxi) electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity is expected to fall from 36 million tons to 33 million tons. Non-compliant production capacity is expected to be fundamentally controlled. In the future, the newly added compliance capacity will be more orderly and the total capacity increase will be limited.
Electrolytic aluminum is expected to have a gap. In 16 years, the demand for electrolytic aluminum in the country will reach 32 million tons, and it is expected to continue to maintain a growth rate of 5-7% in the next few years. In the 18 years, the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to have a supply gap. High-yield electrolytic aluminum stocks are expected to continue to decline, and electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to rise again.
Continue to recommend electrolytic aluminum plates. Continue to recommend China Aluminum and Yun Aluminum shares in the electrolytic aluminum plate.